As the World Bank stated in its last report “Kenyan Economic Update”[1], the Covid-19 pandemic will affect negatively the already weak Kenyan economy:

“The real GDP growth in 2019 was about 5.4%, down from 6.3 percent in 2018 […] the COVID-19 shock is expected to further reduce growth in 2020 with large impacts on services […] In addition, measures taken to slow down the rate of infection, including home confinement, travel restrictions, the closure of schools and entertainment spots, the suspension of public gatherings and conferences, and a nightly curfew, are expected to affect both production and consumption across the economy. Social distancing measures can be very successful in delaying the spread of COVID-19, nonetheless, it is also very costly to the economy. This cost is aggravated by the presence of a large informal sector, high poverty rate, and unemployed youth population (about 70 percent of the total population is below 30 years old)”

For the report “Socio economic impacts of Covid-19 in Kenya” published by Development Initiatives[2], the most affected sectors are:

• Livelihoods and Food Security where the impact of Covid-19 is aggravated by other two crisis: locust infestation and floods.
• Labour Force[3] where the measures imposed by the government of Kenya to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 are resulting in job losses, both for casual workers in informal sector and daily-wage earners in the formal sector.
• Public Transport with an increase in the cost incurred by vehicle operators and a consequent reduction in the number of passengers using public transport due to the rise in fares charged by operators to offset higher costs.
• Rent and Housing since people living in poverty are finding it difficult to meet their daily expenses and pay bills, including rent, as a result of job losses, pay cuts or unpaid leave.

If this is the current situation, what can be done to sustain the most vulnerable people?

At the outbreak of the pandemic Kenyan Government, UN Agencies, NGOs and CBOs along with the private profit sector have set up a task force in order to face the emergency.

It would be useful to strengthen these partnerships to mitigate also the socio-economic consequences the Kenyan society may face in the medium-long term. With the Government providing social nets for people living in poverty as well as acting in support of the most strategic sectors (health, infrastructure, internet connectivity, local SMEs). A stronger private sector will serve as engine to trigger the economic growth. The last but not the least, the non-profit agencies and organizations could play an essential role in monitoring the progresses and in ensuring that the price of the crisis will not weighs heavy shoulders of the most vulnerable people.

[1] World Bank, Kenyan Economic Update, Edition No. 21, April 2020
[2] Development Initiatives, “Socio economic impacts of Covid-19 in Kenya”, June 2020
[3] According to the KNBS survey, the percentage of the population in active employment, whether informal or formal, has fallen to 65.3% of men and 48.8% of women

Ph Credit: Irene De Angelis

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